Blog: Exclusive poll reveals the real reasons the Tories face a record defeat warns DAVID MADDOX – Express

Techne UK carry out weekly polling for Express.co.uk on British attitudes to the key issues. This week they delivered three results which should have Tory MPs looking for gainful employment in two years time when they lose their seats – 51 percent who disapproved of Jeremy Hunt’s Budget62 percent who had no confidence that the latest deal with the French (the third one in three years) to stop the migrant crisis would work; and 52 percent who did not think that the Government has moved quickly enough on maximising the benefits of Brexit.

In the latest series of the Crown there is a scene where John Major, as Tory Prime Minister, meets Prince Charles about a damaging poll about the Queen. Mr Major advises the Prince, who, according to the script, wants his mother to abdicate, that being “guided by polls is dangerous.”

The former Prime Minister has dismissed the entire portrayal as “malicious fiction” but it is worth saying that the fictional version of himself was certainly wrong about polls. Major of course had bad poll after bad poll until Tony Blair led Labour to give him and the Tories the most crushing defeat in their history in 1997.

But now, the polling tells us, consistently, that the Conservative Party is facing something even worse than that.

Essentially, what the survey of 1,624 British voters tells us is that in the three key areas the Conservatives were elected on in 2019 the belief is that they have failed. It is about as damning an indictment as it goes.

Add on to that the weekly tracker poll from Techne UK which shows that after the Budget Labour gained three points in its lead from 19 points to 22 with 50 percent of the vote compared to the Conservatives’ 28.

The week before that Techne’s survey showed that even before the Budget, voters thought Sir Keir Starmer would be a better Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak by 40 percent to 36 percent.

The results are reflected in other polls as well and when Redfield and Wilton published results putting Labour 24 points ahead, Boris Johnson ally Nadine Dorries put out a very telling Tweet.

She said: “On the day Conservative MPs and ministers submitted their letters and removed our most successful PM for a generation, we were 4 or 5 points behind.”

It is a sense of despair shared by many Tory MPs, perhaps particularly those ones who are now convinced the party is in the throes of “a socialist takeover.”

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One noted on Liz Truss who effectively lasted just 48 days in office noting that the impact of the market fluctuations after the mini-budget have gone already. “They are trying to blame Liz for the economic problems but actually none of it is her fault. This all the legacy of Rishi Sunak as Chancellor, the lockdown pandemic and the refusal to reduce the size of the state.”

Others are looking at submitting letter just weeks into the new leader’s Premiership but most are too exhausted. What appears to be the main problem is that none of them seem to know how to restore trust in key policy areas.

The revelation that Mr Sunak’s government is considering a Swiss style semi-rejoin of the EU will do little to spark confidence in their ability to maximise the benefits of Brexit.

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Meanwhile, despite the rhetoric, deals with the French and worsening weather hundreds of illegal migrants continue to come across the Channel in small boats each day.

And tax rises and spending cuts delivered by Mr Hunt on Thursday is hardly a package to win an election on.

Tellingly, every age, social, education and income category has a net disapproval rate on the economy.

Even pensioners who had their triple lock guarantee protected were 49 percent disapprove to 40 percent approve.

Many people voted Brexit to take back control of Britain’s borders finally, but now two thirds (67 percent) of 2016 Leave voters have no confidence in the Government’s latest initiative with the French.

Added to that four in 10 (39 percent) of Leave voters think they have failed to maximise the benefits of Brexit.

Many of these voters will be people who voted Tory for the first time in the former Labour heartlands where Conservatives won Red Wall seats in historic turnarounds.

If the latest Techne poll is true Electoral Calculus calculates that Labour would have a 272 majority and the Conservatives will have 99 seats far worse than Major’s humiliating defeat.

Even if this is an exaggeration it is hard to see how the Tories can turn things around when they the public have lost confidence in them delivering on the core issues they promised.

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