Blog: UK at 5/1 odds of re-joining EU by 2026 as Brexit reality hits home – The New European

The UK has a 5/1 chance of rejoining the EU by 2026 due to growing frustrations with Brexit.

Bookmakers Betfair have increased the odds on the UK seeking to rejoin the EU in five years as the impacts of leaving the bloc take a toll on everyday lives – from job loses to difficulties with travelling and working abroad.

It follows Downing Street’s attempts to downplay claims from businesses and fishermen that the deal has damaged their exports and impacted key sectors.

“It might fall to a new generation of politicians, in both main parties, to have the honest conversation about Brexit that’s so far failed to materialise,” Betfair claimed.

“Getting that done in time for 2026 looks tight. But five years is a long time – think how much has happened in UK politics since 2016 – and the market on the UK rejoining is worth watching.”

MORE: Campaign urges Brits to declare themselves ‘European’ on 2021 census


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The bookies are now giving odds of 5/1 of the UK rejoining by 2026 and 1/10 for it remaining outside.

Betfair also gave the Tories a 11/5 chance of winning a majority in the next general election, on the caveat that the vaccine rollout continues to prove a success. It gave Labour a 3/1,and 16/5 chance of gaining a majority and a 6/5 chance no overall majority would be reached.

It also predicts that Brexit will remain the biggest factor during 2024 election campaign, giving it 4/11 odds.

“Perhaps Brexit will be the biggest factor at the next election… just as it was at the last. It’s not going away and will continue to cause problems for both main parties. It remains to be seen which will suffer most and whether anyone will have the guts to advocate reversing it.”

Last week a report by several Conservatives last week that said Brexit had left the UK “less safe and less secure” and called for Boris Johnson to re-open negotiations with the EU.

Dominic Grieve and David Lidington, a former attorney general and de facto deputy prime minister respectively, led the calls.

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