Blog: The Week Ahead – US Politics, COVID-19, and Brexit Likely to Overshadow Data – FX Empire

For the Dollar

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

At the start of the week, NY Empire State manufacturing figures for November will be in focus.

Barring dire numbers, however, there should be a limited impact on the Dollar.

On Tuesday, retail sales, industrial production, and business inventory numbers for October will draw attention.

Expect the retail sales figures to have the greatest impact. With labor market conditions quite dire, weakness in consumption will test risk sentiment.

In the 2nd half of the week, Philly FED manufacturing and weekly jobless claims figures will provide direction.

Other stats in the week include housing sector data for October that should have a muted impact on the markets.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and U.S politics will remain the key driver, however. The markets will be looking for some sort of progress on the stimulus front and for Trump to concede.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.57% to 92.755.

For the EUR:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic data front.

Finalized October inflation figures for Italy and the Eurozone are due out in the 1st half of the week.

With the ECB expected to provide further support next month, the stats should have a limited impact on the EUR.

At the end of the week, wholesale inflation figures from Germany and flash consumer confidence figures for the Eurozone are due out.

Expect the Eurozone’s flash consumer confidence figure to have the greatest impact. It’s likely to be a grim figure as EU member states look to contain the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the week. Any further details on what to expect from the ECB next month will influence.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates and Brexit will remain key drivers in the week.

The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.34% to $1.1834.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

On Wednesday, inflation figures for October will draw attention. With the BoE ready to hit the negative rate button, any pickup in deflationary pressures would pressure the Pound.

In the 2nd half of the week, November’s CBI Industrial Trend orders and October retail sales figures are due out.

Expect the retail sales figures to be the key driver in the week. With England going into lockdown mode for November, the numbers may not reveal what lies ahead, however.

That suggests that any upside for the Pound would be limited should the numbers be upbeat. On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak early in the week. Any chatter on monetary policy will influence as Brexit talks continue.

Away from the economic calendar, expect Brexit to be the key driver. Negotiators have just 3-days to come up with a deal ahead of Thursday’s EU Summit. News of a deal would support a breakout from the Pound.

The GBP/USD ended the week up by 0.25% to $1.3189.

For the Loonie:

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Manufacturing sales and wholesale sales figures for September kick things off.

We don’t expect too much influence from the stats early on in the week.

October inflation figures on Wednesday and September retail sales figures on Friday will influence, however.

Away from the economic calendar, market sentiment towards the economic outlook will remain a key driver. The markets will be looking for progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine. Expect any positive news to support the Loonie.

The Loonie ended the week down by 0.67 % to C$1.3137 against the U.S Dollar.

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